Calibrated uncertainty with measured calibration (Brier/ECE reported)
Confidence is calibrated and measured, not asserted.
TESTED , rung 3 of 8 Recorded 6 September 2026
Technical
What it is
Calibrated uncertainty with measured Brier/ECE (jarvis/reasoning/calibration.py).
Truth ladder
Where it stands
Rung 3 of 8: TESTED
Automated tests exercise it in isolation, often against fixtures.
Project record: IMPLEMENTED
- CONCEPT Designed or specified. No working code yet.
- IMPLEMENTED Code exists. Nothing has demonstrated that it behaves correctly.
- TESTED Automated tests exercise it in isolation, often against fixtures.
- INTEGRATED Wired into the rest of JARVIS and tested across component boundaries.
- PRODUCTION-REACHABLE The owner can reach it through the real runtime path, not only through a test harness.
- LIVE-PROVEN A bounded probe ran the real code path on a booted JARVIS on the real machine and recorded evidence. The project treats live evidence as expiring after 24 hours, so every live reading here shows the date it was taken.
- FORMALLY VERIFIED Its critical property is checked by a proof or exhaustive verification.
- RELEASE-QUALIFIED Passed every qualification gate for a named release.
Limits
Limitations
- A probe of the real code path passed and wrote evidence (2026-09-06), but it did not demonstrate a booted process on a real port, so the project itself refuses to call it LIVE.
Record
Status history
- TESTED , rung 3 of 8 Recorded state: IMPLEMENTED
Only states recorded in the public export are listed. Earlier states may exist in the project’s private ledgers.
Connected work
Connected work
- Roadmap Predict-before-act as one layer BUILDING
Neighbours
Related capabilities
- Deixis & pronoun resolution "It", "that" and "the one from earlier" resolve to the right thing.
- Route selection (deterministic/fast/deep/coding/vision/research) Each request is routed to the right kind of thinking: instant, fast, deep, coding, vision or research.
- Risk & uncertainty escalation Risky or uncertain requests are escalated instead of guessed.
- Epistemic marking JARVIS marks how sure it is: confirmed, inferred, incomplete, or unknown.